Macro Environment as Important as Competitive Environment

The idea I picked to give advice to for ideablob.com Week at the Entrepreneurial Mind is one that offers an innovative product tied to wellness.

Individuals begin fitness programs each year, but set unrealistic goals or improperly structure their fitness programs and eventually lose interest. I’m developing a portable touch-screen device equipped with a heart rate monitor, acting as a personal trainer. The device uploads workouts from our website, where based off an individual’s fitness goals, they can build their own workout or use one of ours. The device displays progress charts, advice for future workouts, and can incorporate daily nutrition information. The website also functions as a social networking website centered around device results for exercise gurus, athletes, and anyone who enjoys living a healthy lifestyle.

While I think this is a cool idea, the entrepreneurs need to keep their eye on the big picture — that is the future of healthcare policy in the US — and not just their customers and competitors.
My advice:

Wellness might well become the “next big thing” in healthcare. The reason I say “might” is due to the uncertainty of the elective and what healthcare plan ends up being passed in the next president’s term.
This is a great example of a good idea that may blossom or fade due to macro trends outside of the entrepreneur’s control.
If healthcare stays a primarily private sector industry, products like yours has a bright future. Health plans will be trying to implement more programs and initiatives to help their population of covered lives get healthier. As a society we have become too sedentary and are eating too many calories. It is taking its toll on health care costs. Insurance plans are trying to find ways to incentivize people to get healthier and use fewer resources for healthcare. Your product would be a great tool for this.
If healthcare goes with a more public payment model in the next few years, we will likely have all attention focused on lobbying to keep coverage for certain illnesses. We will also see resources going to create healthcare entities that will be able to maximize their market share of federalized healthcare dollars (think economic rent seeking). Not as much money will be going to wellness.
When I was and entrepreneur in the healthcare industry we paid attention to the macro changes in the 1980s and 1990s. We saw a shift from insurance to managed care and positioned our business accordingly. We saw Medicaid being pushed down from the federal level to individual states — again we shaped our strategy to meet this macro trend. We still paid attention to our customers and competition, but those really involved more short-term tactical decisions. Our strategy was shaped by the direction of those broader trends.
Don’t just look at your competitive environment — keep your eye on the macro trends that may shape your future. See which way the election takes our country as it will have a huge impact on healthcare and on the wellness sector you are operating in with your new product.