I was at a meeting attended by several local entrepreneurs the other morning. They all agreed that everyone is worried that the economy is in bad shape, but none of them were really feeling recessionary pressures in their businesses. The only thing that worried them directly was inflation.
In economics, perception can very quickly become reality. With enough talk about a bad economy we can all start behaving like there is poor economic conditions.
Take the latest results from the OPEN survey from American Express Small Business Monitor as a case in point.
Optimism among small business owners is at the lowest point in the six-year history of the OPEN survey. The economy is cited by four in ten small business owners (44%) as the issue that will most sway their decision on the next president of the United States, followed at a distance by homeland security (cited by 16%).
HOWEVER, despite concerns over the economy, growth is still a priority for entrepreneurs as seven in ten business owners plan to grow their business over the next six months and 31% of entrepreneurs report plans to hire, up 7% from the fall.
That is the psychology of mass panic that can make a weak economy seem worse than it really is. The media loves bad news (as they used to say — “It sells newspapers”), so they have an incentive to make even worrisome news about the economy sound much more dire than it actually is at the present time. It can also lead to behaviors that make the economy become worse than it otherwise might have.
Are we in a slow down? Yes. Is it across all sectors? No. Is it across all geographic regions? Definitely not. Are we in a recession? Not yet, and if small business has its way and pursues the growth plans they are talking about, I doubt we will actually experience a true recession.
However, I still remain very concerned about inflation. Very, very concerned.
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