Upturn is Elusive

A growing number of economists are pulling back from their earlier statements that the economy has bottomed out and is poised to begin its upturn.  It seems that small business owners concur.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.2 points in March, falling to 86.8.  The persistence of index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history.

“The March reading is very low and headed in the wrong direction,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “Something isn’t sitting well with small business owners. Poor sales and uncertainty continue to overwhelm any other good news about the economy.”

The index has posted 18 consecutive monthly readings below 90.  In March, nine of the 10 Index components fell or were unchanged from February’s not-so-great readings.

Some highlights from the March NFIB survey:

  • While actual job reductions may have halted, plans to create new jobs remain weak.
  • The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell to near record low levels.  A paltry two percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand
    facilities.
  • Widespread price cutting continued to contribute to reports of lower nominal sales.
  • Small business owners continued to liquidate inventories and weak sales trends gave little reason to order new stock.
  • Earnings trends declined again in March, with 58 percent reporting that profits are falling. 
  • Regular borrowers continued to report difficulties in arranging credit. 

“What small businesses need most are increased sales, giving them a reason to hire and make capital expenditures and borrow to support those activities,” said Dunkelberg in summarizing this month’s survey results.

Economic recovery on Main Street is looking to be a long, long way off.