According to a recent survey, 42% of NFIB members ranked the cost of natural gas, propane, gasoline, diesel and fuel oil as a “critical” problem. The issue has climbed from being the #10 ranked issue concern to the #2 concern in this year’s survey.

Inflation is real and will become an even bigger concern over the coming months. 

Here are two stories that the NFIB is sharing as examples of this growing problem.

Jim Buchy
Buchy Food Service
Greenville, Ohio
Buchy Food Service is a fifth-generation, family-owned business that began as a manufacturer of meat and sausage products in 1878 and is now a full-line food distributor with a 100-mile service territory. The company prides itself on service and has long claimed, “We have no minimum shipment requirements or drop-ship charges.” Yet, as energy prices continue to rise, the cost of delivering goods — a staple of the service that Buchy’s provides to its customers – has risen dramatically. The rising delivery costs are having a big impact on the 139-year-old business, causing Buchy’s to examine ways in which it can consolidate services — something they are reluctant to do.
 
Douglass Henry
Henry Molded Products Inc.
Lebanon, Penn.
For over 40 years Henry Molded Products, Inc. has been topamax to buy providing customers with high quality molded fiber/pulp products. They produce recyclable products that are environmentally friendly using 100% pre- and post-consumer newsprint, kraft paper and other waste papers, and are a nationally recognized manufacturer of green products. Henry Molded Products relies on natural gas to create its products and now pays more than $100K per month on its natural gas bill for his factory. Over the last few years, his energy costs have more than doubled.

The NFIB is taking the right stand on this issue, pushing for more freedom within the energy industry.  From a letter that Dan Danner of the NFIB sent to Congress:

Small business owners need immediate relief from high energy costs, and drilling offshore is a critical step towards increasing the domestic supply of oil and natural gas and reducing prices at the pump.  Unlike some of their larger competitors, escalating fuel prices hit small businesses particularly hard because they often must absorb these cost increases instead of passing them on to their customers. 

In order for our economy to regain its footing, we must be able to meet the energy needs of small businesses, and I urge your strong support of this important energy policy.  

The Commission on Growth & Development recently issued their report on global economic development: “The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development“.  The report concluded that there is no fast and easy answer.  It takes long-term commitment and patience to create sustainable growth in an economy.    

Key conclusions of the report include: 

—  Growth is a crucial part of poverty reduction and the improvement of people’s lives. It is impossible for poor countries to lift large populations out of poverty without growth. Equality of opportunity and a focus on individuals and families, gender inequalities, and economic security, however, is critical to maintaining the support for growth oriented policies. Open access to free markets is key.

— That growth is a long-term challenge that requires leadership, persistence, stamina, pragmatism, transparency and the support of the population.  In an age of quick fixes and sound bites this will be a challenge.

— That growth requires engagement with the global economy to import knowledge and technology, to access markets, and to generate a strong export sector – critical in the early stages of growth.  The global nature of our economy is unavoidable.

— That resources, especially labor, must be mobile. The Report also recommends a bridging of the divide between the formal and informal labor sectors by allowing export-oriented industries to recruit workers on easier terms than prevail in the formal sector but with the same essential worker protection in the areas of health and safety, working hours and child labor. It highlights the need to better manage the migration challenge and the results of changing demographics.

— Access to capital is fundamentally important. 

A new global study from The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) reports that women entrepreneurs are a key contributor to economic growth in low/middle income countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Among the findings:

• There is no gender difference in the survival rate of women’s businesses versus those of men in high-income countries.
• Women who are employed and have built a social network of entrepreneurs are more likely to become entrepreneurs. The social and economic benefits of working are driving women’s entrepreneurship more than increased education or household income.
• Women tend to be less optimistic and self-confident than men about starting a business. But once involved in entrepreneurial activity, women’s confidence builds, and they are more likely to know other entrepreneurs, and exploit viable opportunities just like their male counterparts. Given difference in how various cultures around the globe view economic independence among women, the initial lack of confidence is not surprising. The good news is that once they take the entrepreneurial plunge, they gain confidence. Entrepreneurship has not only economic implications, but social implications for women as well.
• Fear of failure is also higher for women in all country groups compared to their male counterparts. Women in Europe and Asia low/middle income countries had the highest fear of failure rates (40.3%) compared to women in Latin America and the Caribbean (34.2%), and women in high-income countries (27.1%).

A good way to help women entrepreneurs is to join with those of us who give micro-loans through Kiva. I just made eight micro-loans to aspiring women entrepreneurs around the globe.

The Brookings Institution has been busy pushing forward on an agenda for socialized entrepreneurship.
Two items from the National Dialogue on Entrepreneurship this week caught my eye (and raised the hair on the back of my neck).
First:

A new report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation and the Brookings Institution suggests that a new National Innovation Foundation could do a better job of structuring key Federal agencies to support innovation. The study recommends that a newly created National Innovation Foundation serve as the Federal government’s primary support mechanism and point of contact for issues related to innovation. The report proposes three possible structures for a new NIF: housed within the Commerce Department; a publicly-sponsored corporation similar to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting; and, as an independent federal agency like the National Science Foundation.

I must admit I would never have dreamed of modeling anything after the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
Next. another report. I should note that both of these are from the same series, which they call Blueprint for American Prosperity: Unleashing the Potential of a Metropolitan Nation:

A new Brookings Institution study contends that current Federal policies do too little to promote cluster creation, i.e. agglomerations of businesses, service providers, and other partners who operate in a particular field or sector. As part of a wider set of programs to spur innovation, the report recommends that policymakers initiate a new set of programs to catalyze cluster activity across the US. This effort would contain two components. First, a Cluster Information Center would help map cluster initiatives across the US and provide research and evaluation about these programs. This effort is modeled on a successful European effort, the European Cluster Observatory. Second, a new Federal grant program (of about $360 million) to help fund state and regional cluster initiatives. This effort would help seed state and local innovations and also build closer connections between Federal, state and local partners.

And while we’re at it, let’s create another federal agency promoting rent seeking and model it after a European agency that tries to steer business activity to advance social agendas.
No thanks, Brookings! Keep your hands off American free enterprise! Markets work. Federal bureaucracies do not.

I was at a meeting attended by several local entrepreneurs the other morning. They all agreed that everyone is worried that the economy is in bad shape, but none of them were really feeling recessionary pressures in their businesses. The only thing that worried them directly was inflation.
In economics, perception can very quickly become reality. With enough talk about a bad economy we can all start behaving like there is poor economic conditions.
Take the latest results from the OPEN survey from American Express Small Business Monitor as a case in point.
Optimism among small business owners is at the lowest point in the six-year history of the OPEN survey. The economy is cited by four in ten small business owners (44%) as the issue that will most sway their decision on the next president of the United States, followed at a distance by homeland security (cited by 16%).
HOWEVER, despite concerns over the economy, growth is still a priority for entrepreneurs as seven in ten business owners plan to grow their business over the next six months and 31% of entrepreneurs report plans to hire, up 7% from the fall.
That is the psychology of mass panic that can make a weak economy seem worse than it really is. The media loves bad news (as they used to say — “It sells newspapers”), so they have an incentive to make even worrisome news about the economy sound much more dire than it actually is at the present time. It can also lead to behaviors that make the economy become worse than it otherwise might have.
Are we in a slow down? Yes. Is it across all sectors? No. Is it across all geographic regions? Definitely not. Are we in a recession? Not yet, and if small business has its way and pursues the growth plans they are talking about, I doubt we will actually experience a true recession.
However, I still remain very concerned about inflation. Very, very concerned.