The NFIB has just released their employment report for October. It is consistent with other reports we are seeing this week.
William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the NFIB, issued the following statement:
“Once again, the ‘good news’ is less bad news. Small business owners in October reported a decline in average employment per firm of 0.5 workers (seasonally adjusted) during the third quarter (prior three months to the survey), a marked improvement from the losses of about 0.8 employees reported in the prior three months and much better than the record loss of 1.26 workers posted in May.
“Eight percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 3.5 workers per firm, but 19 percent reduced employment an average of 4.2 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted); both statistics are better than September readings. The ‘job generating machine’ is still in reverse. Sales are not picking up, so survival requires continuous attention to costs and labor costs loom large. An increase in the minimum wage of more than 10 percent was hardly helpful, as teen unemployment has surged (over 440,000 jobs lost since April, the teen unemployment rate rose to 25.9 percent). Still, job reductions are fading and job creation will cross the zero line by the end of the year. Eight percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings, unchanged from August and September.
“Over the next three months, 16 percent plan to reduce employment (unchanged), and 9 percent plan to create new jobs (up 2 points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative 1 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 3 point improvement, but still more firms are planning to cut jobs than planning to add.”
According to SurePayroll’s monthly Small Business Scorecard survey (customer survey based on 25,000 small businesses nationwide), small business hiring is up slightly in October from the month of September, bringing us to a 2.2 percent increase year-to-date. Unfortunately, small business salaries are headed in the opposite direction, with a year-to-date decline of 7.3 percent.
Studies like this one reinforce my belief that we are in a prolonged recession from can you buy topamax online which there is no clear end in sight. Wall Street’s ups and downs do not measure the real economy. Until small business starts expanding, there is little hope of a sustainable upturn anytime soon.
Also of concern in this survey is the finding that optimism among small business owners surveyed is continuing to decline, dropping to 50 percent – one of the lowest of levels of the year.
The NFIB Young Entrepreneur Foundation is currently accepting applications for the 2010 Young Entrepreneur Awards. High-school seniors with a flare for entrepreneurship are encouraged to apply online for a chance to win a scholarship valued from $1,000-$10,000. The deadline for applying for an award is December 31. If you know an impressive young entrepreneur, encourage them to apply today.
I have found myself quoting good old Abraham Maslow a lot these days. Maslow was the psychologist who develop the theory on hierarchy of needs as an explanation of what motivates us.
Maslow said that we have to take care of each level of needs before we worry about dealing with the next level.
This has become a helpful tool to try and explain how the world really works to my Millennial students. They seem to assume that the lower level needs are a given. I guess that is the fault of us Boomers who raised them to think that way.
I find myself redirecting our students away from trying to find fulfillment in their careers — if they are lucky that may come so day. Job one right now is, well, to find “job one” coming out of college. They may create it through their business or find one that can meet their basic needs — food, shelter, etc.
James Shewmaker sent along a great blog post from Dr. Paul White’s blog that speaks to this:
I continue to “preach” the concept that a student’s career path is the combination of understanding themselves (their abilities, interests, personality style, etc.) and knowledge about the world of work. And I fully believe that we continually overemphasize the individual aspect of the equation. In fact, (although it is a bit of an over-statement) I have come to believe that it really doesn’t matter what a student wants to do. Ask anyone one of the tens of thousands of individuals who have been laid off, furloughed or who can’t find work.
The issue isn’t “what do I want to do” but “what goods or services are needed that people are willing to pay for”? As a culture, we have forgotten that the primary purpose of a career is to provide financially for ourselves and our family. This is accomplished by providing a service (either customers or an employer) that someone needs and is willing to pay for — and obviously, that we are qualified to provide.
The good news is that my students seem to be catching on. Their plans are getting more realistic and doable, and those who are not pursuing their own ventures are getting much more pragmatic.
What is curious to me is how all of this will impact our entrepreneurial nature of culture in America over the long term. But more on that in a later post….
My column this week in the Tennessean offers start-up advice for accidental entrepreneurs:
Has the recession made you an accidental entrepreneur? Not sure how to pick the right business to start?
Business
opportunities are most often the result of major changes in the
economy, society, our culture or technology. These changes create
customers who have new unmet needs. For example, when women entered the
work force in large numbers in the 1970s, they needed child care.
This soon led to creation of a whole new industry called day care.
The
first step in determining if a business idea is right for you is to
make sure it builds on your existing knowledge, skills and experiences.
The best business opportunities come from solving everyday problems
that you have observed from your previous work experiences, your
hobbies or things you regularly experience.
Make
sure that there really is a strong market that is truly interested in
your product or service. Examine the size of the market to confirm that
you need to attract only a small percentage of the total potential
customers to make your business work. And make sure that the potential
customers are willing to pay you enough to make the business turn a
profit.
The
business will need to generate enough income for your lifestyle. Also,
it will need to become profitable before you run out of whatever funds
you have saved to live on during the startup of the business.
It
is very difficult, if not impossible, to find bankers or investors
willing to back a first time entrepreneur’s startup in today’s economy.
So if your savings are meager, you may need to find a venture that
generates cash flow quickly or postpone the startup until enough
savings are in place.
Take it personally
An entrepreneurial business
is not just a simple financial investment. It becomes much more
personal and emotional than that. Surveys of entrepreneurs tell us that
building income and wealth is only one of the many reasons for
launching a business.
Entrepreneurs
want to create a business that is a reflection of who they are. They
want to build a business that has a culture based on their values —
that is, on how they want their employees and customers to be treated.
Finally,
don’t overlook the importance of building a business that allows room
for the other things that are important in your life. The time and
energy you want for your family, your friends, church and hobbies
should be factored into the planning.
The right business needs to fit with your experiences, income needs and values, and it must allow for a balanced life.
I will be leading a seminar for Belmont University titled “Business worthy? How to uncover and evaluate entrepreneurial ideas.”
It’s
designed to help guide aspiring entrepreneurs through the process of
finding ideas and assessing their feasibility. It will be held in
Williamson County on Nov. 3, Nov. 10 and Nov. 17.
Those entrepreneurs who have survived the recession continue to show glimmers of optimism. A new Intuit Payroll survey found that 44% are planning to hire in the next 12 months. The survey, which polled more than 1,000 small business owners, also revealed that 60% of small business owners expect their business to grow over the period.
My fear is that what we are seeing are mere embers of optimism left over from the blazing fires of our economic boom times of the past twenty years, rather than a spark heralding a period of renewed growth.
Gregory Go and Glen Stansberry have pulled together a collection of recommended resources from various entrepreneurship writers and bloggers, which is posted at OPEN. My recommendation was:
How often are you working on building connections? Jeff Cornwall believes that connections are some of the most
important resources you can have to help your small business.
“An often overlooked
resource for small business owners – and particularly aspiring small business
owners- is entrepreneurs in the same industry whose businesses are further along
in their development. Entrepreneurs are surprisingly willing to ‘pay it forward’
and help other entrepreneurs. These entrepreneurs are usually very willing to
offer information, advice and even mentoring because someone probably did the
same for them when they were first starting up. And more often than not, all you
have to do is ask.”
This is probably one of the most common pieces of advice I find myself giving to our students and alumni as they are developing their business plans or trying to get their ventures off the ground — and it really works. All it usually takes is a phone call or an e-mail.
Which
group of entrepreneurs is geared up to lead us out of the recession?
According to the
a survey from American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor, it is the Entrepreneurial Generation (a.k.a Gen Y, or the Millennials). The survey found that Gen Y is the most optimistic group of entrepreneurs when
compared to other age groups and to the overall sample of business owners. More
than three-quarters (80%) of these entrepreneurs have a significantly more
positive outlook on business prospects versus Gen X and business owners overall
(each 55%), and Baby Boomers (52%).
The
optimism of Gen Y entrepreneurs extends across a number of areas:
They’re most likely to hire (36%, vs. 25% of Gen X and
20% of Boomers )
They’re most likely to have capital investment plans
(58%, vs. 41% of Gen X and 39% of Boomers)
They’re most willing to take a financial risk (67%, vs.
52% of Gen X and 47% of Boomers)
They’re least likely to have cash flow issues (53%
versus 59% for Gen X and 64% of Baby Boomers)
They’re least stressed out by the economy (57% versus
72% of Gen X’ers and 71% of Boomers)
They’re most likely to implement employee-friendly
policies to battle the recession. Gen Y will allow employees to
maintain a flexible schedule (44%), Baby Boomers will institute a hiring
freeze (41%) and Gen X entrepreneurs will institute a salary freeze (39%)
This is consistent with the attitudes I am seeing among our Gen Y students this semester. I am handing back the first installment of business plans to my seniors this week. They are much more serious about trying to figure out a way to make their ventures work, as fewer believe that there will be jobs waiting for them when they graduate.