A View of the Post Recovery World

This week I showed the video Demographic Winter to both my undergraduate and graduate students. 

The video documents a chilling demographic trend that is not getting enough attention — the declining fertility rate that is occurring in about 70% of the countries around the world.

Here is a part of the synopsis of the film from their website:

One of the most ominous events of modern history is quietly unfolding.  Social scientists and economists agree – we are headed toward a demographic winter which threatens to have catastrophic social and economic consequences.  The effects will be severe and long lasting and are already becoming manifest in much of Europe.

A groundbreaking film, Demographic Winter: Decline of the Human Family, reveals in chilling soberness how societies with diminished family influence are now grimly seen as being in social and economic jeopardy.

Demographic Winter draws upon experts from all around the world – demographers, economists, sociologists, psychologists, civic and religious leaders, parliamentarians and diplomats.  Together, they reveal the dangers facing society and the world’s economies, dangers far more imminent than global warming and at least as severe. 

We had a rich discussion in both of my classes. 

We talked about the impact of declining populations on the future of the US and world economies.  The data presented in the film seems to paint a fairly bleak picture for the US and other western economies over the coming decades due to population decline.  Japan and much of Europe are already feeling the negative economic effects of declining fertility rates.  The US is expected to begin this slow economic decline beginning around 2010 — when Baby Boomers reach their peak spending age.

The graduate students, mostly Generation X, were stunned.  Our program is an evening MBA degree, so most of the students are working full-time.  They were concerned about their careers, their children’s futures, and their outlook for retirement.

My undergraduate students, who are mostly Generation Y, seemed to take it more in stride.  They reminded me that this is part of the reason why they are studying entrepreneurship, after all.  They understand that our economy will never look like it did even a decade ago.  They already know that it is up to them to create their own way in the world — the corporate career path of the past century is at a dead end in their minds. 

What is increasingly clear to me is that our post recovery economy will probably not be very robust.  The timing of this recession just at the time that Baby Boomers are reaching peak spending age is like, to use the words of one of my students, “the perfect storm.”  I believe the recovery will be slow, but that the long term will be a general decline over the coming decades.

Will there be opportunity in this world?  You bet.  But, you will need to be highly skilled at identifying more scarce market niches and a much more nimble manager as your business grows.  We will not see times when any fool can make money as an entrepreneur.  With softer markets only the best will thrive.

The film suggests that much of the boom of the past twenty years is attributable to one main cause — the Boomers reaching their peak consumption age.  Those times are over, and there is every indication that a long-term booming economy will not come again in the US for generations — if ever.

Entrepreneurship Education Newsletter

I am serving as the editor of a free electronic newsletter on entrepreneurship education called, appropriately enough, Entrepreneurship Educator Newsletter.  It is a project through the publisher The Planning Shop.

Each month we offer four tips and ideas to help enhance entrepreneurship programs.  I find interesting and useful classroom tips, resources for teaching entrepreneurship, pedagogy innovations, and so forth from programs around the globe.

If you’d like to sign up to receive the e-newsletter in your e-mail box each month click here to fill out a simple subscription form.

I also have a permanent link for subscribing in the right column of this site.

Perfect that Pitch

Brad Feld, an early stage investor and an entrepreneur, offers great advice on things NOT to do when trying to make that perfect pitch in an article at US News.  Here is just one of his eight no-no’s when looking for money:

Listing 27 advisors but only one co-founder: Advisory boards, especially at the very early stages of a company, are generally useless. A few key advisors who have deep domain knowledge or experience in your industry are great, but a long list of lightly engaged people who have well-known names but aren’t helping you diminishes your credibility.

So read Feld’s advice, brush up on your pitch, and join us for the first phase of FastPitch Nashville called Pitch Camp:

The details:

When: Friday, February 6, 2009, 1-5pm
Who: Anybody that has, or wants to dream up, an idea
Where: Gordon Inman Center, Belmont University
Cost: $35 per person

Recession on Main Street Deepens in January

ADP Small Business Report for Janaury 2009 was released today.  It shows that the recession has deepened on Main Street.

 

• Total small business employment: -175,000

• Goods-producing sector: -74,000 small business jobs

• Service-providing sector: -101,000 small business jobs

 

This marks the third consecutive month of decline in the small-size business sector.  Although January’s number shows fewer job losses than December, the recession continues to have an impact on this space.  Although job declines have consistently been interpreted as mostly affecting larger corporations, businesses with fewer than 500 employees lost 430,000 jobs in the month of January.

 

It continues to be alarming how little Washington is paying attention to small business in their policy decisions.   

No More Pass or Fail Grading from BBB

The Better Business Bureau has implemented a new approach to rating businesses.  Although it was put in place early in 2009, it is just now getting noticed as its impact is beginning to be felt in the market.

The new system uses a more detailed A+ through F letter-grade, which replaces the old system that rated businesses as either “satisfactory” or “unsatisfactory”.

As small businesses look to trim their budgets to survive the recession, they need to be aware of any potential impact on quality and customer satisfaction.  Also, expect consumers to pay more attention to such rating reports, as they attempt to focus more on getting the most value from their spending.

The scores are calculated using a variety of measures about the specific business, such as the nature and age of the business, its complaint history, government actions against the business, its approach to advertising, and honors and recognition from its industry.  To get a full explanation of its system click here and here.  You can see if your business is currently graded by searching their database here.

 

 

Tips for Pursuing an Entrepreneurial Career

The Wall Street Journal offers some tips for those from Generation Y who will be needing to create their own jobs during this recession.

Finding a job in this economy — even keeping one — is tough. Tired of the uncertainty, some twentysomethings are going from job hunting to job creating by starting their own businesses.

Generation Y entrepreneurs have a few advantages here: They’re seen as tech-savvy, enthusiastic risk takers with fresh perspectives. But they also tend to lack money, credit histories and managerial experience.

New Era for Internet-based Businesses?

Maybe the dearth of VC money for Internet-based businesses is a blessing in disguise, especially during the current recession.

A post at the e-commerce focused blog hipmojo.com offers the following observation:

Web entrepreneurs have had some bad coaching over the past 15 years, encouraged to raise too much, dilute too much, spend too much and have too little to show for it.  A lot of that bad coaching has come from VCs, so it is very refreshing to see a VC point out to the real benefit of the Web, which is the ability to do things for a fraction of the cost of traditional offline ways.  That is the real power of the Web, that is what keeps old media executives awake at night.

Indeed.  The web has two advantages relevant for current conditions.

First, the web can offer products and services to customers at a much lower cost.  Since offering “value” is your best hope of growing a business right now, this gives web-based businesses a significant competitive advantage.

This leads directly to the second advantage.  Web-based businesses can offer lower prices due to their lower start-up and operating costs.  Since money is tight, the ability to bootstrap a start-up via a lower cost web-based business model may be the best path to launching and growing a business.

Clearly, not all businesses can take advantage of an Internet business model.  But we should expect to see growth in e-commerce over the coming months as more entrepreneurs harness the power of its lower costs, which create the ability to offer better value to customers. 

A Call to Fix Canadian Economy via Entrepreneurship

Rick Spence writes in the Financial Post that Canada needs to focus on entrepreneurship education to rebuild their economy:

[If Finance Minister] Mr. Flaherty is serious about getting Canadians to take responsibility for their financial futures, he would instead focus on entrepreneurship education. The days when the banks, the post office or General Motors hire for life are gone. People have to get used to the notion they must create their own jobs — probably many times — throughout their working lives. They have to understand entrepreneurship isn’t some hopeless last, desperate resort. It’s a lifestyle of hope, empowerment and accomplishment. The accelerating pace of change today — economic, technological and demographic — is spinning off countless new business opportunities, if people can only be encouraged to see them.

 

 

The Importance of Value in Today’s Economy

My column in today’s Tennessean offers two examples of businesses doing well during the recession by offering value to the market:

Not all small businesses are facing declining sales in these difficult times. Businesses that offer a product or service that provides a better value to the customer are finding they’re actually able to grow during a recession.

Two very different businesses in Middle Tennessee serve as prime examples.

Ken Harmon, his wife and two friends founded The Music Library. The service lets churches and schools resell used choral music and music products to one another through a Web site, www.themusiclibrary.com.

Harmon, an alumnus of the Belmont University MBA program, found this niche from his own experience as a music minister leading a small church choir that was operating on a limited budget.

In the current economic downturn, The Music Library has been able to capture many new customers in a relatively short period of time due to the tightening budgets of many churches and schools.

Another example of a business finding success in the recession is Cell Journalist, a Nashville startup venture founded by Colin and Parker Polidor. Cell Journalist provides a platform to local TV stations and newspapers, allowing audience members to easily send in images and videos of breaking news and community events.

“Even as layoffs are accelerating and budgets are being slashed, media outlets realize that now more than ever they must invest in new innovative digital platforms to make them more efficient and successful,” explains Colin Polidor a graduate of the Massey MBA program at Belmont University.

In a short time Cell Journalist has signed up about 40 clients, including some of the largest media groups in the country such as Scripps and Raycom. But, their platform also offers value to many smaller local television stations and other media.

Owners look ahead

Once the economy strengthens, retaining customers will be the next objective.

“When ‘normal’ economic times return, it will be much easier to retain these customers than to capture new ones,” suggests Harmon of the Music Library. They have a simple, cost-effective plan to attract and keep these new customers.

First, they ask customers how they found out about The Music Library. This helps Harmon focus a limited marketing budget on those efforts that are bringing in new business. They also actively encourage customers to pass the word about their services.

They motivate this word of mouth by always trying to wow customers with excellent customer service beginning with the first order.

Both businesses have found a formula for success by offering value to budget-conscious customers constrained by the current economic hardships.

Find Yourself a Dreamkiller

My father (still an active octogenarian entrepreneur) taught me years ago that every entrepreneur needs a three legged stool of support – an attorney who knows business law, a CPA, and a banker.  With all due respect to my father, I believe there is a fourth leg to that stool that is equally important – a mentor. 

For each of the legs of this stool you need to take care to pick the right person for you.  Just because a certain attorney has a great reputation and is recommending by others does not always mean that there will be a fit with your business, and more importantly, a fit with you.  Ideally, the people who serve as your four legs of support will become an advisory team that you can trust to offer clear-eyed advice in good times and in bad.

 

Finding a banker, CPA and attorney for your business is rather straightforward.  Talk to other entrepreneurs and other people who know business to get a list of professionals to consider.  Meet with each to find one that truly is a good fit with you and your business, and who can provide any specific expertise you may need.

But finding the right mentor is not as straightforward.  It is not as simple as doing a web search or talking to other entrepreneurs.  The right mentor may come from your networking in the business community.  He or she may come from your circle of family and friends.  Your mentor may be a professor or an advisor you secured through programs like SCORE.

 

Finding a mentor is not like hiring an attorney or setting up your accounts with a banker.  It is more like a friendship that naturally kindles and then grows in intensity over time.  You can never really choose a mentor – it just seems to happen.

 

So what makes a good business mentor?

 

A Dreamkiller, not a Cheerleader.  Entrepreneurs seem to always have plenty of cheerleaders.  Family and friends are there for encouragement and lifting your spirits.  A good mentor is someone who will tell you the truth — even if it hurts.  My students and alumni will sometimes refer to being “Cornwalled”.  When they bring their ideas or fledgling businesses to me for advice, my job is to try to find every weak spot, every possible flaw, every vulnerability they face in the competitive market.  One student once said to me, “Dr. Cornwall, you are such a Dreamkiller.”  As much as I would love to join the ranks of cheerleaders, I know that my role has to be to help ensure they get their business right and find their way to be able to thrive in the market. 

Trust.  A mentor should be someone you can share your wildest dreams and your darkest fears.  A mentor often acts more as a therapist than technical advisor.  The stress and strain of starting a growing a business can become overwhelming.  A good mentor is someone who can listen and empathize with these struggles.

 

Wisdom from Experience.  Find a mentor who has “been there and done that.”  They may not have all the answers, but they have enough experience to be able to help the entrepreneur navigate through difficult times.

Network.  Along with their experience also comes their network.  A mentor can help connect with possible customers, suppliers, funding sources, and so forth.

 

When you find a person who is willing to invest the time and energy it takes to be a true mentor, cherish that relationship. I appreciate the support and guidance I received from my father and the other mentors in my life.  And when the time comes to become a mentor for others, remember all of those who helped you throughout your entrepreneurial journey.